Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.144726 3.780738 4.493050 5.347056 6.340073 7.455169 8.798852
2025-05-04 2.387570 3.242094 4.300995 5.697141 7.475469 9.649603 12.491478
2025-05-11 1.791590 2.704810 3.938914 5.700699 8.118053 11.280834 15.686521
2025-05-18 1.335470 2.220914 3.514522 5.495182 8.392993 12.408484 18.306336
2025-05-25 1.003503 1.827038 3.120083 5.229606 8.497420 13.259200 20.580687
2025-06-01 0.811462 1.602543 2.926565 5.209487 8.923545 14.570782 23.592247
2025-06-08 0.674253 1.436582 2.789949 5.243782 9.415117 16.001041 26.880616
2025-06-15 0.558648 1.281534 2.639776 5.222758 9.798005 17.278050 30.020613
2025-06-22 0.438049 1.086659 2.379903 4.963392 9.735447 17.816519 32.012698
2025-06-29 0.366779 0.976520 2.258500 4.933057 10.057009 19.001097 35.131803
2025-07-06 0.308177 0.879630 2.144790 4.896713 10.355135 20.159235 38.281158
2025-07-13 0.286699 0.865523 2.200907 5.202808 11.320856 22.555977 43.720312
2025-07-20 0.256774 0.824694 2.195325 5.388296 12.088124 24.685703 48.898079
2025-07-27 0.235357 0.801259 2.225616 5.654723 13.044364 27.240354 55.024468
2025-08-03 0.200229 0.729875 2.129600 5.629203 13.403121 28.704079 59.268053
2025-08-10 0.162013 0.637343 1.962899 5.416397 13.343234 29.355699 62.042842
2025-08-17 0.128696 0.548530 1.786530 5.151058 13.134661 29.689089 64.224567
2025-08-24 0.110039 0.502370 1.715255 5.130148 13.459662 31.107108 68.582963
2025-08-31 0.095876 0.467410 1.668441 5.163623 13.909675 32.810768 73.608268
2025-09-07 0.082236 0.429403 1.604698 5.142759 14.228950 34.262169 78.217047
2025-09-14 0.065180 0.370270 1.462546 4.886847 13.956280 34.430402 80.224073
2025-09-21 0.055729 0.339771 1.404900 4.856910 14.231475 35.801294 84.795049
2025-09-28 0.047567 0.311536 1.348348 4.821053 14.486780 37.144311 89.386343